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Two years ago, Alberta led Canada in corporate renewable energy procurement. Companies across sectors chose Alberta to decarbonize their electricity through virtual power purchase agreements. These deals brought investment, jobs and millions in municipal tax revenue to communities across the province.

Today, that market has essentially vanished. After falling 95 per cent from 2023 to 2024, corporate renewable energy deals in Alberta dropped another notch in 2025, bringing the cumulative decline to a staggering 99 per cent. Meanwhile, across the country, Nova Scotia has quietly emerged as Canada’s new corporate renewables leader.

The consequences extend far beyond cancelled projects and delayed contracts. In 2025, more than 800 MW of construction-ready solar projects and 300 MW of wind projects cancelled their connection requests. These weren’t speculative ventures; they were shovel-ready projects with millions already invested.

The province added only 38 MW of solar in 2025, the smallest growth since 2019. New wind development has stalled completely. For the first time since 2018, Alberta went an entire year without adding wind capacity. In a sad reversal, total wind capacity decreased, a first in the province’s history.

While existing renewable projects generated $70 million in municipal tax revenue in 2025, Alberta municipalities lost out on an estimated $84 million in potential revenue from cancelled projects.

What makes this particularly frustrating is that corporate buyers still want to purchase renewable energy in Alberta. Our analysis of the top 100 companies on the TSX reveals that Alberta accounts for approximately 1,485 MW of renewable energy demand to meet corporate climate targets, nearly 20 per cent of Canada’s total corporate clean energy demand.

These aren’t aspirational goals for 2050. Many companies have targets for 2030, just four years away. They need to act now, but they can’t. Buyers are simply waiting for the policy clarity they need to move forward. Some are exploring options elsewhere. Others are watching 2026 closely, knowing this is the year Alberta either rebuilds confidence or sees the market shift elsewhere.

Three major policy reforms initiated by the Alberta government since the 2023 renewable energy moratorium remain incomplete — the Restructured Energy Market (REM), transmission policy reform and TIER carbon pricing changes.

Each creates uncertainty. Together, they’ve created paralysis.

The government has signalled that final REM rules should be in place early this year, with transmission planning implementation beginning in 2027. Meanwhile, Alberta’s negotiations with the federal government over the energy and climate MOU that the two signed last November are due by April 1 to provide much-needed clarity on how the TIER carbon credit market will be restored.

That negotiation also includes a discussion between the two governments on the future of electricity regulation in Alberta — and whatever the outcome, it is imperative that wind and solar developers feel welcome in the province once again.

These decisions will determine whether Alberta sees any power purchase agreements announcements in 2026. They’ll determine whether the more than 2,000 MW of construction-ready solar projects still waiting in the queue move forward or are cancelled. They’ll determine whether Alberta reclaims its position as Canada’s corporate renewables leader or cedes that title permanently.

This isn’t just about helping corporations meet ESG targets. The industries of the future, data centres, advanced manufacturing and carbon removal facilities all require massive amounts of clean, low-cost electricity. Companies deciding in 2026 where to locate these facilities will ask: Can we count on this province for the low-cost clean energy we need?

Right now, Alberta’s answer is unclear.

But hope remains. Alberta still has what it needs: abundant sunshine and strong winds that make it ideal for renewable energy, experienced developers, willing corporate buyers and proven infrastructure.

What’s needed now is clarity and conviction. The policies being finalized in 2026 must provide incumbent projects with reasonable protection from retroactive changes, create a transmission framework that allows new projects to connect economically, restore market confidence in carbon credits and clearly signal that Alberta welcomes renewable energy investment.

Alberta spent a decade building the most successful corporate renewables market in Canada. It took less than two years of policy uncertainty to nearly destroy it.

The coming year will tell us whether Alberta is serious about being an energy leader in the 21st century.

Jorden Dye is the director of the Business Renewables Centre-Canada, a non-profit that helps businesses looking to procure renewable energy.

Read our op-ed at the Calgary Herald